Confirmation Bias: Not Just for Students Anymore

Over the last eight months, but especially so beginning around September-October 2016, I noticed an unusual spike in search demand for "confirmation bias." 

I'll use the Review of General Psychology's definition of "confirmation bias" as "the seeking or interpreting of evidence in ways that are partial to existing beliefs, expectations, or a hypothesis in hand." In other words, consuming data subjectively, so that it falls in line with, as opposed to challenges -- what you already think.

The following graph shows US-based demand for [confirmation bias] over a five-year span, with its spike in fall of 2016 called out:

US search demand for [confirmation bias] from early 2012 to early 2017.

Prior to fall of 2016, search demand for [confirmation bias] fell into what I call the "academic curve," in which demand corresponds roughly to a twin-semester year, with valleys during traditional academic breaks. The preceding five-year view makes it a little harder to see, but if we isolate a distinct 12-month period, it's easier to see what I'm talking about:

US search demand for [confirmation bias] throughout 2014.

Terms that follow the "academic curve" are typically focused on concepts discussed most often in an educational environment. (There are many curve types, including seasonal, regional, health-based, news-based, market-based, and so on.) 

In short, for reasons that are most likely related to news and varying levels of accuracy among news sources, I'm seeing hefty interest in the psychological underpinnings of our current environment. It's likely to fall back into the traditional academic groove in the next 12 months, but I'll keep watching.